Japan's used car exports represent a significant part of the global automotive market, and they have experienced notable fluctuations between 2011 and 2023. In this column, we analyze the trends in export volumes during this period, considering the influence of global events each year.
Trends in Export Volume
From 2011 to 2023, the total number of used cars exported from Japan rose from 857,779 to 1,536,472 units, marking an approximate 80% increase over 12 years. Notably, there was a sharp 25% rise in 2023, with exports jumping from 1,235,660 units in 2022. This surge was largely driven by the yen's depreciation, making Japanese used cars more competitively priced in global markets and leading to increased international demand.
2011-2013:
During this period of global economic recovery, Japan's used car exports steadily grew from 857,779 units in 2011 to 1,163,109 units by 2013.
2014-2016:
The pace of growth slowed due to global economic instability and currency fluctuations, but export volumes remained high, fluctuating between 1,283,390 and 1,254,047 units.
2017-2019:
Export volumes increased again, peaking at 1,326,597 units in 2018. However, a slight decrease occurred in 2019, with 1,295,852 units exported.
2020-2021:
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted global trade, causing a sharp decline in exports to 1,062,064 units in 2020. However, in 2021, exports recovered to 1,224,924 units.
2022-2023:
Post-pandemic recovery, coupled with the yen’s depreciation, boosted the competitiveness of Japanese used cars, particularly in emerging markets. Export volumes surged once again, reaching an all-time high of 1,536,472 units in 2023.
Impact of Global Events
Global events have had a significant influence on the used car export market, with the following factors playing a key role:
1. Currency Exchange Rate Fluctuations
The depreciation of the yen significantly increased the price competitiveness of Japanese used cars in international markets, leading to a rise in export volumes.
2. Demand in Emerging Markets
The growing demand for cars in emerging markets such as Africa and Asia has been a driving force behind Japan's used car exports. Notable export destinations include Mongolia, Kenya, and Tanzania.
3. Geopolitical Risks
Exports to regions such as Russia and the Middle East have been affected by political tensions and sanctions, but export volumes have remained relatively stable.
Russia: Export volumes to Russia saw a sharp decline, dropping from 128,312 units in 2014 to 49,142 units in 2015. This was largely due to international sanctions imposed following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Despite these challenges, export volumes to Russia have started to recover between 2022 and 2023 for several reasons.
Myanmar: Exports to Myanmar peaked at 124,212 units in 2016 but have since dropped significantly, reaching 26,587 units in 2020 and 13,226 units in 2021. This decline can be attributed to political instability and international pressures.
Sri Lanka: Export volumes to Sri Lanka surged from 34,243 units in 2014 to 59,338 units in 2015, but dropped dramatically to 12,613 units in 2020 and only 1,113 units in 2021. This was due to Sri Lanka's economic crisis and the sharp depreciation of its currency.
Future Outlook for Japan's Used Car Exports
When considering the future of Japan's used car exports, several key trends and factors come into play. Based on insights from JETRO reports and market analysis, the following factors can be identified:
1. Growth in Emerging Markets
The rising demand for cars in emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Asia, will continue to be a key driver for Japan's used car exports. In these regions, used cars are often more affordable than new ones, and Japanese used cars are valued for their quality and durability. This growing demand could further boost export volumes in the future.
2. Currency Exchange Rate Fluctuations
Exchange rates, especially the movement of the yen, have a direct impact on Japan's export competitiveness. A weaker yen increases the price competitiveness of Japanese used cars in overseas markets, boosting exports. Conversely, a stronger yen could pose risks by reducing export volumes.
3. Environmental Regulations and Technological Advancements
Stricter environmental regulations and the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) may lead to a decline in demand for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in certain countries. However, these regulations may also create new opportunities by shifting the demand in specific regions, calling for a more focused export strategy.
4. Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical tensions in markets such as Russia and the Middle East introduce uncertainties in export opportunities. However, these risks can be mitigated through effective risk management and by exploring alternative markets.
5. Digitalization and Strengthening Remote Sales
The accelerated digitalization spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to remain a critical factor moving forward. The use of online platforms and virtual auctions will continue to expand, opening up new markets beyond traditional physical constraints.
Taking these factors into consideration, the future success of Japan’s used car exports will rely on flexible strategies and careful market selection. It is essential to develop more concrete strategies by utilizing insights from JETRO reports and market analysis.
Used Car Export Volumes by Key Countries (2011-2023)
国名 | Country name | 2011年計 | 2012年計 | 2013年計 | 2014年計 | 2015年計 | 2016年計 | 2017年計 | 2018年計 | 2019年計 | 2020年計 | 2021年計 | 2022年計 | 2023年計 | 平均 |
合計 | TOTAL | 857,779 | 1,004,845 | 1,163,109 | 1,283,390 | 1,254,047 | 1,187,710 | 1,297,660 | 1,326,597 | 1,295,852 | 1,062,064 | 1,224,924 | 1,235,660 | 1,536,472 | 1,210,008 |
アラブ首長国連邦 | UAE | 80,712 | 87,793 | 98,831 | 112,636 | 136,180 | 151,001 | 144,326 | 126,704 | 171,501 | 135,927 | 133,231 | 150,560 | 203,889 | 133,330 |
ロシア | RUSSIA | 110,791 | 142,412 | 167,822 | 128,312 | 49,142 | 48,244 | 68,778 | 95,073 | 122,593 | 126,418 | 162,249 | 213,522 | 218,175 | 127,195 |
ニュージーランド | NEW ZEALAND | 68,091 | 61,465 | 91,322 | 110,333 | 118,416 | 122,329 | 135,238 | 116,252 | 111,806 | 87,998 | 104,953 | 84,033 | 114,039 | 102,021 |
ミャンマー | Myanmar | 19,625 | 120,836 | 134,681 | 160,437 | 141,087 | 124,212 | 100,146 | 67,575 | 63,269 | 26,587 | 13,226 | 13,415 | 22,303 | 77,492 |
チリ | CHILE | 69,473 | 61,701 | 78,000 | 73,364 | 64,654 | 74,069 | 91,462 | 92,558 | 80,650 | 67,658 | 88,781 | 56,419 | 65,307 | 74,161 |
ケニア | KENYA | 39,248 | 44,659 | 61,396 | 67,059 | 77,457 | 57,130 | 73,872 | 77,267 | 78,454 | 62,940 | 73,459 | 61,317 | 61,043 | 64,254 |
南アフリカ共和国 | SOUTH AFRICA | 67,458 | 59,789 | 62,275 | 53,540 | 46,498 | 48,100 | 71,625 | 89,520 | 51,991 | 41,933 | 43,689 | 36,064 | 56,530 | 56,078 |
タンザニア | Tanzania | 18,714 | 22,949 | 30,912 | 37,343 | 42,752 | 39,408 | 47,589 | 58,596 | 55,879 | 49,499 | 62,428 | 70,851 | 79,822 | 47,442 |
モンゴル | Mongolia | 35,983 | 30,172 | 34,919 | 35,367 | 31,683 | 32,179 | 41,575 | 60,957 | 60,132 | 50,927 | 63,505 | 46,228 | 79,761 | 46,414 |
パキスタン | Pakistan | 37,880 | 64,644 | 28,785 | 38,228 | 49,481 | 56,952 | 87,093 | 54,703 | 10,765 | 23,508 | 38,452 | 12,892 | 27,351 | 40,826 |
フィリピン | PHILIPPINE | 18,327 | 23,666 | 25,228 | 27,870 | 33,982 | 36,217 | 40,818 | 38,104 | 39,428 | 29,057 | 39,669 | 37,393 | 35,265 | 32,694 |
スリランカ | SLILANKA | 38,496 | 11,274 | 18,209 | 34,243 | 59,338 | 24,342 | 37,926 | 70,882 | 32,944 | 12,613 | 1,113 | 48 | 156 | 26,276 |
ウガンダ | Uganda | 23,791 | 24,837 | 27,695 | 27,217 | 22,625 | 21,632 | 26,922 | 28,775 | 26,174 | 28,227 | 27,853 | 26,075 | 29,566 | 26,261 |
マレーシア | MALYSIA | 21,791 | 23,370 | 27,837 | 27,312 | 22,541 | 21,620 | 18,999 | 21,714 | 20,213 | 19,229 | 20,792 | 37,265 | 35,042 | 24,440 |
バングラデシュ | BANGLADESH | 16,028 | 7,077 | 13,033 | 19,770 | 29,189 | 32,556 | 31,523 | 25,318 | 22,281 | 17,496 | 27,095 | 28,000 | 20,936 | 22,331 |
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